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dc.contributor.authorChirebvu, Elijah
dc.contributor.authorChimbari, Moses John
dc.contributor.authorNgwenya, Barbara Ntombi
dc.contributor.authorSartorius, Benn
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-30T13:01:37Z
dc.date.available2016-06-30T13:01:37Z
dc.date.issued2016-03-16
dc.identifier.citationChirebvu, E. et al (2016) Clinical malaria transmission trends and Its association with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana: A retrospective analysis. (2016) Plos One, Vol.11, No. 3, pp. 1-16en_US
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203 (Online)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10311/1441
dc.description.abstractGood knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years. Associations between the incidence of clinical malaria cases and several factors were strong at lag periods of 1 month; rainfall (r = 0.417), mean minimum temperature (r = 0.537), mean average temperature (r = 0.493); and at lag period of 6 months for flood extent (r = 0.467) and zero month for flood discharge (r = 0.497). The effect of mean maximum temperature was strongest at 2-month lag period (r = 0.328). Although malaria transmission patterns varied from year to year the trends were similar to those observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Age group >5 years experienced the greatest burden of clinical malaria probably due to the effects of the national malaria elimination programme. Rainfall, flood discharge and extent, mean minimum and mean average temperatures showed some correlation with the incidence of clinical malaria cases.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by International Development Centre, Canada. Grant Number: 106024-001 (MJC).en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPlos One, http://journals.plos.org/plosone/en_US
dc.rightsThis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en_US
dc.subjectMalariaen_US
dc.subjectmalaria transmissionen_US
dc.subjectflooden_US
dc.subjecttransmission trendsen_US
dc.titleClinical malaria transmission trends and Its association with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana: A retrospective analysisen_US
dc.typePublished Articleen_US
dc.rights.holderThe authorsen_US
dc.linkhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26983035en_US


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